Indian politics, unlike in more mature western democracies has always been ideology driven, and to a certain extent personality driven. Rather than being issue based or development based, parties have stuck to creating and maintaining vote banks based on intangible ideals like socialism and hindutva. Ideals that can easily serve as a smokescreen for accountability. But as our society matures, the new generation can no longer be attracted by ideology alone.
As mainstream India began to get more knowledgeable, better networked and most importantly gets younger, they no longer remained shackled by the past. Memories of the Independence struggle, of a country finding its feet in the harsh world or of riots and communalism no longer are a factor of whom to vote for. Political parties have been slow, well neigh static in changing to a changing India. A lacuna that the Congress managed to take advantage of for two terms, not consciously, rather by virtue of their own ineptitude. By projecting a leader like Manmohan Singh working under the shadow of Sonia Gandhi, both of whom do not have any ideological standing, the Congress inadvertantly appealed to the young masses. A choice made easy by lack of any viable alternative.
But where there is a void, sooner rather than later, there will be a clamor to fill it up. With the Congress making a royal mess of governance, virtually making their reelection on the continuity plank impossible, and elections only a year away, it was time for someone to step up and try to fill the void. That is when one Mr Narendra Modi decided to strike when the iron is hot.
Modi had started his political career as the very symbol of the hindutva ideology, as a right wing firebrand leader who came to power riding on polarized emotions of a state. Ten years hence, he has converted himself into an icon for the youth, a champion of growth and development. He has shown ambition and hard work, ability to innovate and take prompt decisions. These are traits the upwardly mobile young Indian understand and appreciate. Add to this an ability to communicate effectively with his target audience, be it as an orator or on social networks, and he comes across a breath of fresh air, a person who can connect with the new India and take it forward. His work talks for itself and he talks for himself. Rather than empty rhetoric, he has amassed a whole CV of successes during his tenure as the CM of Gujarat to impress the neutral observer, a breed that is becoming the majority day by day.
Along with his achievements and abilities, another factor than plays to Modi's advantage is the absolute lack of any viable alternative to him. The Congress, by compulsion has hedged its bets on Rahul Gandhi, trying to portray him as a youth icon and harbinger of development. Unfortunately he has neither the charisma nor seems to have the intellectual or leadership abilities to impress. Instead he comes across as a spoilt young man, thriving on his family name and power and with no achievement of his own to speak of. The very antithesis of a youth icon the country has been looking for. Add to that the unholy mess that has been the government of the last few years, with scandal after scandal and minimal achievements to note, economical, social or in foreign policy. To expect another chance at forming the government seems terribly optimistic. The rest of the field consist of regional satraps hedging their bets on a hung government to stake their claim. Their chances are dependent more on permutations and combinations and less on their appeal or abilities at the national level. 2014 is five years too early to consider Arvind Kejrival of the AAP as a contender on the national stage.
This is not to say that Modi's ticket to the prime ministerial post is a done deal. In fact it is not even certain that he will be the candidate his party puts forth for the post. Such is the mechanics of Indian politics. Within the BJP itself, Modi has lots of detractors, those insecure with his growth as well as those justifiably alluding to more senior leaders who deserve a chance of their own. Insecurities fed by his autocratic style of government and the ruthlessness with which he deals with those who oppose him. This brings into question his ability to handle a coalition government, the most possible scenario in 2014. This along with the albatross of the Gujarat riots which still keeps him unacceptable to the minority community and as an extension to the coalition partners of the BJP that depend on the minority vote for their power, ensures that Modi will not have an easy run in.
Will elections still a year away, the Modi camp should be worried that Modi has peaked too early. Today it does not take much for someone to fall from grace, to be a villain one day from the hero the day before. To maintain the momentum that Modi has managed into the election year will need excellent man and media management skills. It takes only one wrong sound byte, one unintended gaffe, one scandal in the news and an image built over years can be shattered. Only time will tell if the Indian public will select him for the top job. As of now he is the candidate who ticks the most boxes.
