An old post for my college blog. Still relevant.
For all the hoopla around the entrance in FDI in retail and other sectors, we Indians have not fully comprehended the reasons the west is in such a hurry to set up shop in our country. Like us, the western countries are just as protective and just as concerned about their own economies. The protective nature of the west might be hidden behind their investments and technological advances but the fact is the east is no longer just important to sustain western economies and their way of life but a necessity without which they will no longer be able to sustain their rising expectations and popular demands.
The capitalistic economic model sustained for so long has been based on growth and rising demand. An expectation the slowing growth rate of the west has not been able to sustain. This model of investment by taking up huge credit in order to grow requires that companies need to keep growing at a certain rate or they will implode. Be it growth in terms of GDP, population growth or growth in consumer demand, the developed world has reached a saturation point. The economic crisis we see today are just manifestations of this saturation. Manufacturers need to produce more, retailers need to sell more, banks need to invest more. But where will the demand, the raw materials and the labor required come from? The developing world can provide all this and more. But unlike the earlier centuries the west can no longer grab what they want by sheer force, they will have to participate in the development.
To the west India and China represent opportunities to keep their domestic population satisfied by giving them opportunities to grow. The sheer numbers in terms of potential purchasing power that these two economies together have is what drags them to us. That is why even though domestic incomes are dropping and unemployment is rising, multinationals are encouraged to invest in India and invest heavily. Companies know that if they can successfully leverage their international experience while at the same time adjust to local conditions India and China can rescue them from stagnation or even decline in their home markets.
Every sector in the country is in a nascent stage with potential for new entrants and ideas. While there are latent inadequacies in Indian infrastructure and decision making processes, the gradual opening up of the economy has given foreign companies time to study the market and the Indian customer. The young, upwardly mobile population ensures a market receptive to new ideas and brands. Unlike China, India has a stable political and social structure and have democratic institutions similar to the west. Thus engaging India makes not only economic sense but also strategic sense. The Chinese economy might be attractive for its size and efficiency but come inherent with risk. The Chinese model of huge investments in infrastructure and a controlled currency is untested and is considered unsustainable by many leading economists. India meanwhile follows a tried and tested model of organic growth both in infrastructure and in supply-demand growth.
If the Indian government can ensure continuity and consistency in reforms, there will always be companies willing to invest in Indian no matter how slow or regulated the reform process is. India represents a long term strategic investment to them. Thus it remains imperative that we take a slow and steady path to opening up the economy ensuring growth without effecting local industries. The opportunities globalization and the world economic system has thrown at us need to be utilized to solve our internal deficiencies. Corruption and infrastructure bottlenecks will have to be addressed.
They need us more than we need them. Something we would do well not to forget.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Monday, July 8, 2013
Why minorities should vote for the BJP
The Ishrat Jahan case may have judicial authenticity but no one can argue that the timing and the blatancy with which the government is pushing it is a purely political move. With elections around the corner, it it time for all parties that cater to minority vote banks to start consolidating them. Such consolidation is easiest done by polarization. With the BJP unwilling to play the Hindutva card openly, the onus has come one the so called secularists to rekindle communal animosities and insecurities so as to retain and collect all those opposed to the BJP-RSS brand of Hindutva. It is high time the grassroot minority voter saw through this.
Any community, be it individually or collectively expects two things from a democratic government, development and empowerment. In other words mental and material upliftment. Now while the majority, in this case the middle class and socially upward classes, mainly Hindus, have had development, they have always found themselves on the short end of empowerment due to the pandering of minorities by decades of pseudo secular governments. At the same time, the minorities have not gained the necessary development and thus get solace from what they feel is empowerment. Their propensity to vote as a block and show their strength in numbers has led to them having major roles in political battles, their chosen leaders holding major political posts and enjoy being pampered during elections.
But their political masters understand that these minority cross sections will only remain a malleable vote bank if they continue to lack development, essentially education and a good standard of living. Because as soon as a person gets educated and is no longer having to commit all his faculties for his day to day existence he begins to think on his own. He gains the confidence to take his decisions based solely on his convictions. He then becomes an individual and not just a herd animal who can be influenced only by generalizing his caste or religion. Thus he ceases being a vote bank. Which politician will want his well cultivated herd to disperse by providing them such development. Any dissatisfaction is papered over by blaming the majority and thus polarizing them even further.
An example of this is the state of Kerala. North Kerala has a dominant Muslim minority while the south has a dominant Christian minority. The Muslims of the north are catered to by openly Muslim political parties like the Muslim League and the Indian National League. They are the beneficiaries of the entire Muslim vote and no government can be formed without the support of one of these parties. Thus Kerala Muslims have always had their leaders in plum ministerial posts with their parties having the power to make or break governments. But this power has not resulted in development. They still remain poorly educated and with lower standards of living than the average. Mistrust and hatred is high and communalism is an ever present danger. Their leaders are served by keeping them alienated from the majority and ensuring that they do not gain the education to question them. Compare this with the south where the Christians do not have a political identity of their own. By joining the political mainstream they have ensured that to get their votes, politicians have to cater to their individual wants and have thus ensured prosperity and development. They might not have politicians clamoring for their votes or leaders just for them but they have ensured that the fruits of progress have not passed them by. They cannot be separated from the majority today from a political perspective.
Thus we find that it is those who claim to champion the cause of minorities who have the least to gain from their upliftment. From a national perspective the only party that has anything to gain by educating the minorities and bringing them into the national mainstream is the BJP. The BJP with its ideological foundations as an upper caste Hindu entity cannot appeal to the minorities by playing to their vanity or ego. The BJP has in the past tried to polarize the majority vote and make them vote en-bloc too but the middle class is already past that stage of blind following. Their only option is to break the herd and appeal to the individual voter. Their only choice to attain a decisive majority is to break apart or neutralize the minority political blocks. By thus breaking the chains of minority appeasement the BJP can also cater to its core constituency by providing them with more empowerment. Its only when every person votes individually that an ideology accepted by the majority can prosper. This can only be done by giving them development as an alternative to the pseudo secularism that gives them a sense of power but nothing else. Education, opportunities and security should be the priorities that must be valued.
Even though the BJP as a party, being cast from the same mold of vote bank politicians hasn't yet completely realized this path that they should take, there is a change in the wind. A lack of an alternative to gain more vote share has resulted in every BJP state government having to concentrate on development as their only election plank. There is no reason to believe that at the center their policies will be any different. These is no reason to believe they will have an alternative.
All this and more reason for everyone in the minority, who feels left out in the Indian growth story to give the BJP a chance. The alternative is only more of the same. Who is communal and who is secular is a question that has to be answered consciously as per the realities of the day. An individual perspective is the only way forward for a responsible democracy.
Any community, be it individually or collectively expects two things from a democratic government, development and empowerment. In other words mental and material upliftment. Now while the majority, in this case the middle class and socially upward classes, mainly Hindus, have had development, they have always found themselves on the short end of empowerment due to the pandering of minorities by decades of pseudo secular governments. At the same time, the minorities have not gained the necessary development and thus get solace from what they feel is empowerment. Their propensity to vote as a block and show their strength in numbers has led to them having major roles in political battles, their chosen leaders holding major political posts and enjoy being pampered during elections.
But their political masters understand that these minority cross sections will only remain a malleable vote bank if they continue to lack development, essentially education and a good standard of living. Because as soon as a person gets educated and is no longer having to commit all his faculties for his day to day existence he begins to think on his own. He gains the confidence to take his decisions based solely on his convictions. He then becomes an individual and not just a herd animal who can be influenced only by generalizing his caste or religion. Thus he ceases being a vote bank. Which politician will want his well cultivated herd to disperse by providing them such development. Any dissatisfaction is papered over by blaming the majority and thus polarizing them even further.
An example of this is the state of Kerala. North Kerala has a dominant Muslim minority while the south has a dominant Christian minority. The Muslims of the north are catered to by openly Muslim political parties like the Muslim League and the Indian National League. They are the beneficiaries of the entire Muslim vote and no government can be formed without the support of one of these parties. Thus Kerala Muslims have always had their leaders in plum ministerial posts with their parties having the power to make or break governments. But this power has not resulted in development. They still remain poorly educated and with lower standards of living than the average. Mistrust and hatred is high and communalism is an ever present danger. Their leaders are served by keeping them alienated from the majority and ensuring that they do not gain the education to question them. Compare this with the south where the Christians do not have a political identity of their own. By joining the political mainstream they have ensured that to get their votes, politicians have to cater to their individual wants and have thus ensured prosperity and development. They might not have politicians clamoring for their votes or leaders just for them but they have ensured that the fruits of progress have not passed them by. They cannot be separated from the majority today from a political perspective.
Thus we find that it is those who claim to champion the cause of minorities who have the least to gain from their upliftment. From a national perspective the only party that has anything to gain by educating the minorities and bringing them into the national mainstream is the BJP. The BJP with its ideological foundations as an upper caste Hindu entity cannot appeal to the minorities by playing to their vanity or ego. The BJP has in the past tried to polarize the majority vote and make them vote en-bloc too but the middle class is already past that stage of blind following. Their only option is to break the herd and appeal to the individual voter. Their only choice to attain a decisive majority is to break apart or neutralize the minority political blocks. By thus breaking the chains of minority appeasement the BJP can also cater to its core constituency by providing them with more empowerment. Its only when every person votes individually that an ideology accepted by the majority can prosper. This can only be done by giving them development as an alternative to the pseudo secularism that gives them a sense of power but nothing else. Education, opportunities and security should be the priorities that must be valued.
Even though the BJP as a party, being cast from the same mold of vote bank politicians hasn't yet completely realized this path that they should take, there is a change in the wind. A lack of an alternative to gain more vote share has resulted in every BJP state government having to concentrate on development as their only election plank. There is no reason to believe that at the center their policies will be any different. These is no reason to believe they will have an alternative.
All this and more reason for everyone in the minority, who feels left out in the Indian growth story to give the BJP a chance. The alternative is only more of the same. Who is communal and who is secular is a question that has to be answered consciously as per the realities of the day. An individual perspective is the only way forward for a responsible democracy.
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